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Monday, May 28, 2007

Two options positions I have

I've decided to add some of my "positions" to my blog, instead of simply talking about macroeconomic trends and monetary policy. I'll probably start doing more and more posts like this one in the future.

For now, here's just a quick look at two positions I have (note, on this date GM is at $30.49 and DAL is at $18.76). Any thoughts (positive or negative) are greatly appreciated.

I have a lot of LEAP puts on GM and a lot of LEAP calls on DAL.

I think GM is going bankrupt, and the only thing that could save them would be private equity making a stupid bid, but interest rates likely to go up and with bank lenders becoming more cautious, I think the negatives of GM will start to emerge again. The other potential risk (if you're in puts) is that the UAW agrees to take the health care liabilities from GM, but frankly I don't think they'll do that without a big fight.

On DAL, they just came out of bankruptcy, which is basically like an IPO without any investment bank or any type of sales & marketing channel pumping up the stock. So you get to buy the stock at what the court thinks is a fair valuation. Only several weeks and months later does Wall Street start covering it again, and often times not for a while after that because the companies are well capitalized and they don't need any products nor services from Wall Street. Look at what happened to the stocks of United and Winn Dixie when they came out of bankruptcy. I'm wondering if DAL will have the same tick up, especially if the airline industry remains strong. The economy and fuel prices would seem to be the big risks here.


  • Which DAL LEAPS? I only see 12/07.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:37 AM  

  • Sorry. You're correct. It's the 12/07 options. I was incorrect to call these LEAPs. Good catch.

    By Blogger Charlie, at 6:38 PM  

  • i sold naked $45 puts on Citigroup Dec 07. pretty much upside down, but I wouldn't mind owning the stock anyway.

    Also sold September naked puts on AAV and HTE. they've doubled in two days :-)

    actually, i wished they'd get allocated to me! i wouldn't mind owning AAV at 11.75 and HTE at 24.20!!!! Nat Gas n Oil are trending up due to explosive consumption and depletion of current wells.

    By Blogger Adventures In Money Making, at 8:32 PM  

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